The July-September growth is way above the 7.2% growth forecast by 15 economists in a Mint poll. This is also significantly higher than the latest projection of 7% for the quarter by the Reserve Bank of India.
The July-September growth is way above the 7.2% growth forecast by 15 economists in a Mint poll. This is also significantly higher than the latest projection of 7% for the quarter by the Reserve Bank of India.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth rate of 8.2% in the second quarter of the current financial year, buoyed bystrong manufacturing and consumption growth, the ministry of statistics & programme implementation said on Friday.
A statistical effect of low base and low inflation also helped in pushing growth during the quarter. The July-September growth is way above the 7.2% growth forecast by 15 economists in a Mint poll. The economists projected GDP growth in the range of 7% to 7.7% in Q2. This is also significantly higher than the latest projection of 7% for the quarter by the Reserve Bank of India.
With growth surpassing RBI's forecast by over 1 percentage point, marking resilience in the economy despite tariff-related uncertainty, the RBI may find it tougher to deliver a rate cut in the December policy meeting, even as economists widely anticipate a 25-basis-point easing.GDP growth had slowed to 5.6% in the same quarter last year. The economy expanded 7.8% in the first quarter of FY26 and 7.4% in Q4 of FY25.
RBI's forecasts
The RBI has projected growth of 6.8% for the full year, 6.4% for Q3 and 6.2% for Q4. The significant upside surprise in Q2 GDP growth may prompt the central bank to revise its forecast upwards at the next meeting scheduled for 3-5 December, even if it retains the H2 growth forecasts.
Beyond statistical effects, high-frequency indicators showed improved growth momentum even before the GST rate cuts kicked in from 22 September.
Yuvika Singhal, an economist at QuantEco Research, had pointed out that softer inflation conditions, transmission of earlier monetary policy easing, and inventory build-up in some sectors in anticipation of festive season demand—amplified by the GST rate cuts—also contributed to increased economic activity in the quarter.