This year's early chill, linked to the onset of La Niña, which typically brings below-normal temperatures across much of India, has pushed consumers to buy winter wear sooner than usual. A longer wedding season is further boosting footfalls, giving retailers a positive start to the upcoming third quarter. Industry estimates suggest that winter sales typically account for about 20% of the total annual sales for apparel companies.

"The early indications of winter and the start of the wedding season have clearly lifted early-season sales," said Santosh Sreedhar, partner at Avalon Consulting. "This will be an important period to clear last year's inventory and start next year with fresher styles."

Poonam Upadhyay, director at Crisil Ratings, added that the overlap in winter and weddings amplifies demand. "Winter matters just as much because it coincides with the wedding season, when demand naturally surges."

The winter wear market was valued at $12.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $22.64 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 6.16%, according to the India Thermal & Winter Wear report by IMARC Research.

Last year's mild winter was clearly reflected in the sector's figures, reducing volumes, margins, and sell-through rates. Rahul Mehta, chief mentor of the Clothing Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI), said discounting was "deep," starting from 30-35% and rising to 50-60% in many cases, adding that volume growth was flat, with a decline in the value of goods sold.

Strategic shifts

For instance, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL), the company's Q3FY25 revenue grew just 3% year-on-year to ₹4,167 crore, while the company posted a ₹108 crore net loss due to markdowns and ageing winter stock. "If winter had been stronger this time, we would have had even better growth, but this was a tepid winter," ABFRL Lifestyle chief executive officer Vishak Kumar told analysts last year.

A timely and prolonged winter can significantly boost sector profitability, as winter wear generally carries structurally higher margins—typically 300-400 basis points above regular apparel, according to industry estimates.

"This time, with far fewer discounts in play, margins won't face the same downward pressure said Crisil's Upadhay.

"For most apparel players, winter accounts for roughly a quarter of annual sales, typically in the 20-30% band depending on product mix and geography," she added. That concentration means a stronger winter can swing quarterly performance, especially for retailers with heavy exposure to North and East India.

With temperatures dropping sharply after Diwali, retailers are witnessing earlier full-price buying compared to last year, when demand picked up only in mid-December. CMAI chief mentor Mehta expects winterwear volumes to grow about 25% year-on-year this season, aided by lower discounting and more predictable footfalls. This shift is already visible at value chains such as V2 Retail Ltd."Winterwear's contribution has increased from around 40% last year to nearly 55% this season…the higher ASP (average selling price) gives us a delta of nearly 5% in sales," said Akash Agarwal, whole-time director, during a recent analyst call.

Learning from last year's experience, this winter, ABFRL front-loaded its inventory, particularly winterwear from Bangladesh, due to supply uncertainties. Kumar stated in the recent analyst call that this early stocking was aimed at ensuring timely availability for festival and wholesale channels, where winterwear typically commands higher prices.

Return of demand

Value fashion retailers, whose performance hinges heavily on winter footfalls, are expected to see the strongest recovery. V-Mart Retail Ltd, with a dominant presence in north and east India, described last year's winter as "topsy-turvy," characterized by a delayed November start, a short December peak and a quick taper in January. Despite the demand pressures, V-Mart stayed profitable. Revenue in Q3 FY25 rose 15% year-on-year to ₹1,026.7 crore, while net profit nearly tripled to ₹7.15 crore from ₹2.82 crore a year earlier, driven by tighter inventory controls and stronger early-season demand.

The management noted that footfalls picked up immediately after Diwali this year. "We saw some chill factor coming in right after Diwali, and customers started shifting into winter product lines," managing director Lalit Agarwal said. The company's chief financial officer, Anand Agarwal, added that margins have improved due to fresher merchandise and better sell-through.

Regional and mid-market players such as Bazaar Style Retail and Cantabil are also reporting stronger post-Diwali footfalls. Cantabil's CFO Shivendra Nigam said winterwear demand has begun "on a very encouraging note," particularly across Delhi NCR, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Bazaar Style Retail noted demand strengthening across the East and Northeast, aided by weddings and early cold wave conditions.

GST, rural boost

Across the board, industry executives say goods and services tax-led price rationalization has helped early-season sales. "The early season sales this year were largely driven by price drops supported by GST reduction, which was probably also used by many brands to clear out old inventories," Avalon Consulting's Sreedhar said. Crisil's Upadhyay added that the GST cuts have supported costs meaningfully, "The lower GST on synthetic fibre gives meaningful cost support. Even if players adjust prices on winterwear above ₹2,500, the margin impact stays contained, and with demand firm, they don't need to rely on heavy discounting this season."

Semi-urban and rural demand is also playing a bigger role this time. Better farm incomes and reduced price gaps between branded and unorganised winterwear have driven more customers towards organized players, Sreedhar said.