Gross GST receipts grew at an average 9.8% annual rate in the April-September period, but slowed sharply to 4.6% in October. However, the growth is expected to rebound to a robust 10% in November, two people familiar with the government's assessment said. This would push monthly revenue receipts to approximately ₹2 trillion.

"The October revenue collection of ₹1.96 trillion reflected both the trend of people holding back high-value purchases initially in September and subsequently making purchases to benefit from the rate cuts in the final days of the month," one of the two people said. "People knew from 3 September that tax cuts would be effective from 22 September."

GST receipts in October reflect the sales in September. Since the tax cuts and price drops rolled out only on 22 September, many customers held off on purchases that month. Revenue collection in November will represent sales in October, the first month in which the full impact of the rate cut will be visible. It will be reported on 1 December.

Queries emailed to the finance ministry remained unanswered.

The finance ministry's 27 October monthly economic review predicted that the GST reform would fuel domestic demand by easing the tax burden on consumers and businesses, spurring consumption and investment. The reforms primarily involved rationalizing the four-tier GST structure into two main slabs of 5% and 18%, alongside a special 40% rate for luxury and sin goods. The overhaul was intended to stimulate consumption, lower the cost of essential and aspirational household goods and simplify compliance for businesses.

The resilient GST collection trend is expected to support the government meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% for FY26, at a time when direct tax collection growth is lagging behind the required 16% annual growth rate to meet the ₹25.2 trillion annual target.

"So far, no state government has raised any revenue concern to the Centre after the implementation of the GST reforms. GST is the major source of revenue to states. Businesses have also passed on the benefit of tax rate cuts to consumers. It is a conspicuous boost to consumption," the person added.

"There is no big dent in GST revenue collections due to the tax cuts. In previous rounds of GST rate cuts too, revenue collections have picked up after the initial nominal moderation," said the person.

The Centre also expects the tax base to grow fast thanks to other reforms such as easier GST registrations. From 1 November, authorities implemented automated GST registration for enterprises within three days, where output tax liability does not exceed ₹2.5 lakh a month. This facility is available for 'low-risk applicants.'

Since the debut of GST in 2017, India's indirect tax base has more than doubled in terms of registered taxpayers, growing from about 6.39 million to over 15.1 million, reflecting significantly improved formalization and compliance.

The GST collection trends post the 22 September rate rationalization clearly demonstrate that the economy has absorbed the rate cuts without any material disruption to revenue flows, said Rajat Mohan, senior partner at chartered accountancy firm AMRG and Associates. "In fact, the collections continue to remain buoyant, underscoring the depth of domestic demand and the growing efficiency of the GST framework," said Mohan. The finance ministry review had underlined the strong growth outlook for FY26, supported by domestic demand, favourable monsoon conditions, lower inflation, monetary easing, and the positive effects of GST reforms.

"Sectors that benefited from the rate cuts—particularly mass-consumption goods and certain service categories—have shown early signs of improved market sentiment, which is expected to translate into stronger turnover in the coming months," said Mohan.

As GST collections remain robust despite lower rates in key segments, it reaffirms the principle that a moderate, predictable tax structure can foster both compliance and growth, added Mohan.

"Going forward, consistent policy stability, combined with digital enforcement tools, will be crucial in sustaining this positive trajectory while ensuring that the intended benefits of the September reforms are fully realised across industries," said Mohan.

The central government has a ₹10 trillion target for GST collection this year, which requires 11.2% annual growth.